The 83rd Annual Academy Award Nominations (and Predictions)

by Brian Eggert
01/25/2011

The 83rd Annual Academy Award nominations have been announced, and the results are predictable, bearing only a handful of surprises. In a lousy year for movies, Academy voters are left with only a few top contenders to each category and some definite shoe-ins. Here’s hoping some of those more obvious choices are derailed, if only to fill the eventual ceremony with a few surprises. The top films this year appear to be Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The King's Speech, and The Social Network—all excellent films, all d eserving of their praise and inevitable awards. The King's Speech leads the bunch with a whopping 12 nominations.

Below are my picks and commentary for each category. Share your picks on Facebook. Return to Deep Focus Review on Oscar Night for live coverage. Winners will be announced Sunday, February 27th.

 

 

BEST PICTURE:
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Thoughts: Diversity has never been the Academy’s best characteristic, but including ten films in the Best Picture category helps. Featured are top-earning blockbusters to films that premiered at last year’s Sundance Film Festival. It’s always nice to see a Pixar film elevated from Best Animated Feature to Best Picture as well. While it would be somewhat miraculous for something like Winter's Bone to walk away with the Oscar, the top contenders seem to be The Social Network and The King's Speech. My pick for the best film of 2010, Inception, doesn’t seem to have the Oscar support this year that it should have (despite the 10-film category being inspired by the outrage over Nolan’s The Dark Knight being left out of the 2009 nominations). Given Hollywood’s love affair with The Social Network, as evident by this year’s Golden Globes, that film is a safe bet for winner.

My Pick(s): Inception or The Social Network

Likely Winner: The Social Network

 

 

BEST DIRECTOR:
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter

Thoughts: That Christopher Nolan was omitted from this category goes down as this year’s biggest and most criminal snub. It’s a sad shame that an auteur like Nolan goes unrecognized, whereas the merely serviceable direction of Tom Hooper, whose actors made his film, earns a nomination. Alas, Nolan may go down as one of those great filmmakers never to earn an Oscar. Meanwhile, this could and likely will be David Fincher’s year. His work on The Social Network elevated that film from “a movie about Facebook” to something filled with style and cinematic beauty. As Aaron Sorkin noted at the Golden Globes, Fincher is a “national treasure”. Shouldn’t he be rewarded for it?

My Pick(s): David Fincher, The Social Network

Likely Winner: David Fincher, The Social Network

 

BEST ACTOR:
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Thoughts: This is another category, one of the few, where my choice aligns with the probable winner. Colin Firth’s turn as the stuttering King George VI fills the viewer with empathy and terror, as we feel the character’s intense emotions in every scene—his anxiety for public speaking, his fear of embarrassment, his desire to live up to his family’s honor. Firth embodies the role completely. As for the others, it comes as a shocker that Jesse Eisenberg was nominated, not that it’s undeserved. And no one would argue if Bridges went home with his second statue, as how many performers could out-act The Duke in a Western role?

My Pick(s): Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Likely Winner: Colin Firth, The King's Speech

 

 

BEST ACTRESS:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Thoughts: Everyone’s saying this is Natalie Portman’s year. And maybe it’s the contrarian in me, but I don’t want her to win. Sure, she “became” a ballerina for the role, but Portman has played the insecure type before. What’s more, the buzz around Hollywood is that she’s something of a diva, so why give her yet another boost? After the Golden Globes and her awkward acceptance speech, the thought of enduring another “me” speech sounds awful. Maybe it’s just that someone like Jennifer Lawrence would be so much more grateful for the award, and watching Lawrence give a heartfelt acceptance speech would be more genuine than watching Portman restrain her massive ego.

My Pick(s): Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Likely Winner: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech


Thoughts: Unexpected though John Hawkes’ name in this category may be, he doesn’t have a chance against Christian Bale, who deserves this award not only for his physical transformation, but for giving layers to a role that might not have worked in another actor’s hands. Bale gets flack for his trademark intensity, yet he became a likable, funny, complex character in The Fighter, a film teeming with great performances. We haven’t seen this side of Bale before; he shows vulnerability and humor in such a dynamic character. The performance (and inevitable award) proves that Bale is one of today’s finest actors. It would be a shock and an outrage if another actor won.

My Pick(s): Christian Bale, The Fighter

Likely Winner: Christian Bale, The Fighter

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Thoughts: There’re only two contenders in this category: The young spitfire who astonished everyone with her depth in the Coens’ remake of True Grit, and the full transformation of Melissa Leo for The Fighter. Steinfeld shows enough potential in that single role, which managed to assert itself against Bridges’ bravado performance, that giving the inexperienced teenager an award now would secure her future. However, who could argue if voters chose Leo, who was nominated in the past (for Frozen River) and seems to disappear into her every role? Either actress could win and the result would be just.

My Pick(s): Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit or Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Likely Winner: Melissa Leo, The Fighter

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Thoughts: Toy Story 3. There’s no question. Since Toy Story 3 won’t win its Best Picture nomination, it’s a definite winner for Best Animated Feature. Although, here’s hoping the nomination for The Illusionist earns that film a wide distribution. Living in Minnesota, local arthouse theaters have yet to screen the film, leaving this critic hungry for some animated Tati. Bringing the French pantomime back to life through animation is an ingenious idea, one whose magic could contend with the many joys of Pixar's latest.  

My Pick(s): Toy Story 3

Likely Winner: Toy Story 3

 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Outside the Law (Algeria)

Thoughts: Here’s another category where my opinion remains incomplete/uninformed due to my location. Being in the Midwest, foreign films sadly aren’t a priority for even arthouses like the Landmark chain. So, my picks/predictions are pure guesswork here. Biutiful earns my pick for the presence of Javier Bardem and Babel director Alejandro González Iñárritu, while In a Better World is the likely winner because it won the Golden Globe in the same category. By the way, where is I Am Love?

My Pick(s): Biutiful (Mexico)

Likely Winner: In a Better World (Denmark)

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
127 Hours, Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy
The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3, Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Lee Unkrich
True Grit, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Winter's Bone, Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini

Thoughts: If it wasn’t for David Fincher, The Social Network would have been all about the scathing dialogue uttered by star Jesse Eisenberg. Sorkin’s incredible writing contains significant messages about the way technology, and ultimately socially inept programmers, have spearheaded our current disconnected way of relating to one another. Messages so potent and in such a witty package come along so seldom that they must be acknowledged. The only other contender that wouldn’t seem like a disappointment is Joel and Ethan Coen, who tightened and restructured their narrative into a better film than its original to become closer to the source novel, proving remakes are worthwhile if done for the right reasons.  

My Pick(s): The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin or True Grit, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen

Likely Winner: The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Another Year, Mike Leigh
The Fighter, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson
Inception, Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right, Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg
The King's Speech, David Seidler

Thoughts: Few films this year or in the last several years have provoked so much discussion and speculation, yet managed to be as entertaining as Inception. What remains surprising is that despite the open-ended finale, the script leaves you satisfied with not knowing and having to decide your own outcome for the characters. It takes genius to accomplish that level of fulfilled confusion. Through his script’s themes and structure, Nolan culminates his ongoing cinematic preoccupations in one whole. Yet something tells me Academy voters will choose the sly humor and unassuming dramatic notes of David Seidler’s work on The King's Speech.

My Pick(s): Inception, Christopher Nolan

Likely Winner: The King's Speech, David Seidler

 

BEST EDITING:
127 Hours, Jon Harris
Black Swan, Andrew Weisblum
The Fighter, Pamela Martin
The King's Speech, Tariq Anwar
The Social Network, Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall

Thoughts: The best editing of the year was evident in every scene in Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, yet that film’s flop at the box office has ruined its chances for awards consideration. It’s a shame, because that was one award that I truly felt passionate about. Still, Pamela Martin’s work on The Fighter rendered some realistic looking boxing matches inspired by Raging Bull. But voters are more likely to recognize Jon Harris’ work on the frenetic-paced style of 127 Hours, also a much-deserved win.

My Pick(s): The Fighter, Pamela Martin or 127 Hours, Jon Harris

Likely Winner: 127 Hours, Jon Harris

 

 

BEST ART DIRECTION:
Alice in Wonderland, Stefan Dechant
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1, Andrew Ackland-Snow
Inception, Guy Hendrix Dyas
The King's Speech, Netty Chapman
True Grit, Stefan Dechant


Thoughts: For the awe-inspiring dream visuals blended into gorgeous location shooting, and whole worlds designed to look like something from the mind of M. C. Escher, few films were as visually distinguished as Inception. But more than the incredible dream sequences were brilliant sets, like Saito’s home or the stylized hotel. These flourishes make the film a visual splendor beyond mere special effects.  

My Pick(s): Inception, Guy Hendrix Dyas

Likely Winner: Inception, Guy Hendrix Dyas

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Black Swan, Matthew Libatique
Inception, Wally Pfister
The King's Speech, Danny Cohen
The Social Network, Jeff Cronenweth
True Grit, Roger Deakins


Thoughts: Any year including the Coens’ longtime director of photography Roger Deakins (No Country for Old Men, Revolutionary Road) as a nominee for Best Cinematography must be grueling for the other nominees. Anyone else has little chance of winning, frankly. But wouldn’t it be nice if someone other than the Sure Thing won? I’m thinking Wally Pfister for lighting those inconceivable dream sequences and dynamic sets in Inception, yet making us feel “there” throughout. Pfister's sense of motion and his ability to bring clarity to far-fetched action sequences made that film as visually engaging as it was intellectually pleasing.

My Pick(s): Inception, Wally Pfister or True Grit, Roger Deakins

Likely Winner: True Grit, Roger Deakins

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN :
Alice in Wonderland, Colleen Atwood
I Am Love, Antonella Cannarozzi
The King's Speech, Jenny Beavan
The Tempest, Sandy Powell
True Grit, Mary Zophres

Thoughts: Doubtful that I Am Love, my pick for Best Costume Design, will win, since it wasn’t nominated in any other category (including Best Foreign Film). It’s more likely that the resident prestige picture/costume drama will take home the award. If The King's Speech starts sweeping early on, expect this category to be an early sign.

My Pick(s): I Am Love, Antonella Cannarozzi

Likely Winner: The King's Speech, Jenny Beavan

 

BEST SOUND EDITING:
Inception
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable


Thoughts: For any animated film, the sound editor must create or assemble the entire film’s audio. Live-action films can use natural sounds from the shoot to supplement, but animated films create everything. In that respect, Pixar’s latest is the only standout here.

My Pick(s): Toy Story 3

Likely Winner: Toy Story 3

 

BEST SOUND MIXING:
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit


Thoughts: For the same reasons I noted in the Best Sound Editing category, it's a mild shock that Toy Story 3 wasn't nominated here. And so, for the clarity of action scenes, and making unimagined dream imagery sound so convincing, the award should probably go to Inception. Although, as long as the misplaced Salt doesn't take home an Oscar, any choice voters make would be fine by me.

My Pick(s): Inception

Likely Winner: Inception

 

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

Thoughts: Alice in Wonderland deserves a Razzie for its visual effects, not an Oscar. Hereafter opened with an incredible Tsunami scene that came with wowing realism from Clint Eastwood. But again, Inception’s scope and imagination trumps the other nominees by far. There were so few visual splendors in 2010, but Nolan’s film is the only must-see among them, its visuals like nothing audiences have seen before, yet presented with a reality that proved so convincing.

My Pick(s): Inception

Likely Winner: Inception

 

BEST FEATURE DOCUMENTARY:
Exit Through the Gift Shop
GasLand
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

Thoughts: There are several “informative” documentaries included among this year’s nominated films, and few that walk the line between fact and fiction. For that reason, I’m disappointed that Catfish wasn’t nominated, but Exit Through the Gift Shop makes a worthy second choice. Voters will likely pick something more socially significant.

My Pick(s): Exit Through the Gift Shop

Likely Winner: Inside Job

 

BEST MAKEUP:
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman

Thoughts: Rick Baker deserves an Oscar for putting up with Universal Studios’ execs and their choice to remove so much practical makeup from the finished film of The Wolfman. Baker’s status in Hollywood as a makeup artist is second, perhaps, only to Rob Bottin (The Thing). Still, voters don’t seem to like horror, leaving them apt to pick the Golden Globe winner: Barney’s Version.

My Pick(s): The Wolfman

Likely Winner: Barney's Version

 

BEST MUSIC SCORE:
127 Hours, A.R. Rahman
How to Train Your Dragon, John Powell
Inception, Hans Zimmer
The King's Speech, Alexandre Desplat
The Social Network, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

Thoughts: Almost all of the nominees deserve this award, save for the obvious standout of John Powell. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross delivered a powerful modern electronic score to add gravity to The Social Network, and they also won the Golden Globe. Though they’ll surely win again come Oscar Night, here’s hoping voters recognized the layered, penetrating score by Hans Zimmer for Inception. So rarely does music match in structure the narrative of a film, and Zimmer’s work here accomplished that, leaving audiences feeling deeply pierced by his score.

My Pick(s): Inception, Hans Zimmer or The Social Network, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

Likely Winner: The Social Network, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
127 Hours, A.R. Rahman, Rollo Armstrong, Dido ("If I Rise")
Country Strong, Bob DiPiero, Tom Douglas, Hillary Lindsey, Troy Verges ("Coming Home") Tangled, Alan Menken, Glenn Slater ("I See the Light")
Toy Story 3, Randy Newman ("We Belong Together")


Thoughts: I’m just happy that nothing for Burlesque was nominated. If there’s any lingering love for Boyle’s choice of music after Slumdog Millionaire, voters will chose A.R. Rahman’s thumping song “If I Rise” as a winner.

My Pick(s): 127 Hours, A.R. Rahman, Rollo Armstrong, Dido ("If I Rise")

Likely Winner: Toy Story 3, Randy Newman ("We Belong Together")

 

(NOTE: Check your theater listings, because there will be a Short Film roadshow coming to your town over the next several weeks, giving Oscar viewers a chance to form their own opinions about the nominated shorts. The titles in the three categories below haven’t yet made their rounds in my area, so I cannot hope to make predictions.)

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT:
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143

BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, a Journey Diary

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang